The Article in Brief

Background: The most recent report of the Council on Graduate Medical Education (COGME) warns of a small shortage of doctors in the next 10 to15 years and recommends that more medical students and residents be trained.
What This Essay Suggests: COGME based its recommendations on how doctors work now, rather than how they will be working in the future. The recommendations don’t account for the ways in which growing numbers of nurse practitioners and physician assistants will affect health care in the future. An excess of doctors might not improve the health of the public and risks using resources that would otherwise go to education and the health of the nation.
Implications:
* There is growing interest in eveloping better health care teams. Therefore, estimates of numbers of doctors needed in the future should take into account other members of the health care team.
* COGME should offer a vision of what types of medical services should be provided in the future and how the physician workforce will take part in delivering them.