The Article in Brief

Cumulative Incidence of False-Positive Results in Repeated, Multimodal Cancer Screening

Jennifer Miller Croswell , and colleagues

Background Although cancer screening tests play an important role in early detection of the disease, they can produce false-positive results (incorrect results that mistakenly identify cancer). This study examines the costs, in resources and human terms, of false-positive test results over time.

What This Study Found A large study that screened for cancers of the prostate, lung, colon and ovary found that the risk of a false-positive result increases with the number of screening tests. Specifically, by the fourth test, the risk of having at least one false-positive is about 37 percent for men and 26 percent for women. By the 14th test, the risk is approximately 60 percent for men and 49 percent for women. The risk of undergoing an invasive diagnostic procedure because of false-positive results is about 17 percent for men and 12 percent for women after four tests and 29 percent for men and 22 percent for women after 14 screening tests.

Implications

• This study provides a clearer picture of the burdens and risks associated with multiple cancer screening programs.
• Physicians and patients should discuss the likelihood of false-positive results in cancer screening, and they should examine the balance of risks and benefits in deciding on a patient's best course of action.