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Research ArticleOriginal Research

Comparing Medical Ecology, Utilization, and Expenditures Between 1996–1997 and 2011–2012

Michael E. Johansen
The Annals of Family Medicine July 2017, 15 (4) 313-321; DOI: https://doi.org/10.1370/afm.2084
Michael E. Johansen
1Grant Family Medicine, Ohio Health, Columbus, Ohio
2Ohio University Heritage College of Osteopathic Medicine, Columbus, Ohio
3Department of Family Medicine, College of Medicine, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio
MD, MS
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  • For correspondence: mikejoha3@gmail.com
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  • Figure 1
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    Figure 1

    Total medical services used and change in expenditure over time.

    Alt=alternative medicine; Comp=complementary medicine; ED=emergency department; N=nurse; NMW=nurse midwife; NP=nurse practitioner; Opt=optometrist; PA=physician assistant; Pod=podiatrist; PCP=primary care physician.

    a P <.01 for a difference in utilization between the 2 time points.

    b P <.01 for a difference in the expenditure-to-utilization ratio between the 2 time points.

    c No statistical testing done for the difference in the expenditure-to-utilization ratio between the 2 time points.

    Notes: The figure compares the total visits per 1,000 in an average month on various medical services in 1996–1997 and 2011–2012. Marks (center of circles) above the line of equivalence (dashed line) indicate higher expenditures in 2011–2012. The area of the circles represents the change in expenditure-to-visit ratio for each category. Primary care physician and specialty physician comparator year was 2002–2003 instead of 1996–1997. The prescribed medication utilization data came from the 1999–2000 and 2011–2012 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Adapted with permission from NEJM. 2016(374):495–496.

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    Figure 2

    Individuals using medical services and change in expenditure over time.

    Alt=alternative medicine; Comp=complementary medicine; ED=emergency department; n=nurse; NMW=nurse midwife; NP=nurse practitioner; Opt=optometrist; PA=physician assistant; Pod=podiatrist

    a P <.01 for a difference in number of individuals between the 2 time points.

    b P <.01 for a difference in the expenditure-to-individual ratio between the 2 time points.

    c No statistical testing done for the difference in the expenditure-to-utilization ratio between the 2 time points.

    Notes: The figure compares the number of individuals per 1,000 in an average month who used various medical services in 1996–1997 and 2011–2012. Marks above the line of equivalence (dashed line) indicate higher expenditures in 2011–2012. The size of the circles represents the change in expenditure-to-individual ratio for each category. Primary care physician and specialty physician comparator year was 2002–2003 instead of 1996–1997. The prescribed medication data came from the 1999–2000 and 2011–2012 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES).

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    Figure 3

    Expenditures on medical services and change over time.

    Alt=alternative medicine; Comp=complementary medicine; ED=emergency department; n=nurse; NMW=nurse midwife; NP=nurse practitioner; Opt=optometrist; PA=physician assistant; Pod=podiatrist.

    a P <.01 for a difference between 1996–1997 and 2011–2012.

    Notes: The figure compares the expenditure per 1,000 in an average month on various medical services in 1996–1997 and 2011–2012. Marks above the line of equivalence (dashed line) indicate higher expenditures in 2011–2012. Primary care physician and specialty physician comparator year was 2002–2003 instead of 1996–1997. Prescribed medicine expenditure data came from the 1996–1997 and 2011–2012 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS).

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    Table 1

    Utilization, Individuals, and Expenditures per 1,000 Individuals per Month

    Service1996–1997, Value (95%CI)2011–2012, Value (95% CI)DifferenceP Value
    Utilization, no. of services
    Total visits560.9 (530.0 to 591.8)568.7 (540.3 to 597.0)7.8 (−34.2 to 49.7).72
    Outpatient visits535.4 (505.6 to 565.2)542.8 (515.5 to 570.1)7.4 (−33.1 to 47.8).72
    Outpatient physician visits293.8 (277.8 to 309.8)282.5 (269.0 to 295.9)−11.3 (−32.2 to 9.6).29
    Primary care physician visitsa134.6 (127.8 to 141.5)119.8 (113.9 to 125.6)−14.9 (−23.9 to −5.9).001
    Specialty physician visitsa158.8 (150.2 to 167.4)159.1 (150.6 to 167.5)0.27 (−15.5 to 16.1).97
    Prescribed medicationb1,092.6 (924.1 to 1,261.1)1,541.0 (1,253.1 to 1,828.9)488.4 (127.2 to 769.5).008
    Dental visits89.9 (83.9 to 95.9)74.9 (70.8 to 79.0)−15.0 (−22.3 to −7.7).001
    PA/NP/nurse/NMW visits31.9 (28.4 to 35.4)28.1 (25.0 to 31.2)−3.8 (−8.5 to 0.9).11
    Therapy visits35.8 (31.9 to 39.7)51.6 (46.3 to 56.9)15.8 (9.2 to 22.4)<.001
    Treatment visits29.0 (26.1 to 31.8)36.1 (33.1 to 39.0)7.1 (3.0 to 11.2).007
    Optometry/podiatry visits5.1 (4.5 to 5.7)8.8 (7.8 to 9.8)3.6 (2.5 to 4.8)<.001
    Alt/comp medicine visits18.8 (16.0 to 21.6)39.4 (35.1 to 43.7)20.6 (15.4 to 25.7)<.001
    Inpatient visits8.4 (7.8 to 8.9)7.6 (7.2 to 8.1)−0.7 (−1.5 to 0.0).045
    Emergency department visits17.5 (16.4 to 18.6)18.8 (17.8 to 19.9)1.3 (−0.2 to 2.8).10
    Home health visits15.1 (13.3 to 16.9)11.3 (10.1 to 12.5)−3.8 (−5.9 to −1.6).006
    Individuals, no.
    Total visits285.3 (270.3 to 300.3)290.1 (277.1 to 303.1)4.8 (−15.0 to 24.7).63
    Outpatient visits278.0 (263.3 to 292.8)282.5 (269.7 to 295.2)4.5 (−15.1 to 24.0).65
    Outpatient physician visits186.8 (177.1 to 196.4)187.6 (179.2 to 196.1)0.8 (−12.0 to 13.7).90
    Primary care physician visitsa112.5 (106.9 to 118.1)103.2 (98.4 to 108.0)−9.3 (−16.7 to −1.9).01
    Specialty physician visitsa100.5 (95.2 to 105.8)102.0 (97.0 to 107.0)1.46 (−5.8 to 8.7).69
    Prescribed medicationb427.4 (375.7 to 479.0)492.2 (408.4 to 576.1)64.9 (−29.9 to 159.7).17
    Dental visits73.6 (68.7 to 78.5)65.1 (61.5 to 68.7)−8.5 (−14.5 to −2.4).007
    PA/NP/nurse/NMW visits19.8 (18.4 to 21.3)19.9 (18.2 to 21.6)0.1 (−2.2 to 2.3).93
    Therapy visits10.8 (9.7 to 12.0)16.5 (15.1 to 17.9)5.6 (3.8 to 7.4)<.001
    Treatment visits19.0 (17.5 to 20.5)26.3 (24.5 to 28.1)7.3 (5.0 to 9.5)<.001
    Optometry/podiatry visits4.5 (4.1 to 5.0)8.0 (7.1 to 8.8)3.4 (2.5 to 4.4)<.001
    Alt/comp medicine visits7.7 (6.5 to 8.8)18.6 (16.5 to 20.6)10.9 (8.5 to 13.2)<.001
    Inpatient visits7.7 (7.2 to 8.2)7.2 (6.7 to 7.6)−0.6 (−1.2 to 0.1).09
    Emergency department visits14.6 (13.7 to 15.5)14.8 (14.0 to 15.6)0.2 (−1.1 to 1.4).78
    Home health visits11.8 (10.5 to 13.2)9.7 (8.7 to 10.6)−2.2 (−3.8 to −0.5).009
    Expenditures, $c
    Total visits245,900 (231,523 to 260,276)361,784 (342,354 to 381,213)115,884 (91,714 to 140,054)<.001
    Outpatient visits104,972 (99,010 to 110,934)153,141 (144,316 to 161,966)48,169 (37,519 to 58,819)<.001
    Outpatient physician visits51,094 (48,056 to 54,131)83,246 (78,090 to 88,403)32,153 (26,169 to 38,138)<.001
    Primary care physician visitsa19,357 (18,221 to 20,493)19,706 (18,623 to 20,788)349 (−1,220 to 1,918).66
    Specialty physician visitsa45,687 (42,783 to 48,591)62,450 (57,981 to 66,919)16,763 (11,434 to 22,092)<.001
    Prescribed medicationb30,691 (28,893 to 32,488)79,580 (72,723 to 86,437)48,889 (41,801 to 55,978)<.001
    Dental visits19,580 (18,153 to 21,007)22,986 (21,355 to 24,617)3,406 (1,239 to 5,572).002
    PA/NP/nurse/NMW visits3,344 (2,763 to 3,924)5,287 (4,490 to 6,084)1,943 (957 to 2,929).001
    Therapy visits5,243 (4,512 to 5,975)8,048 (7,066 to 9,030)2,804 (1,580 to 4,029)<.001
    Treatment visits7,350 (6,662 to 8,038)12,017 (10,779 to 13,254)4,666 (3,250 to 6,082)<.001
    Optometry/podiatry visits731 (619 to 843)1,435 (1,275 to 1,595)704 (509 to 899)<.001
    Alt/comp medicine visits1,149 (962 to 1,336)3,121 (2,708 to 3,533)1,972 (1,518 to 2,425)<.001
    Inpatient visits93,808 (84,707 to 102,909)107,007 (98,132 to 115,881)13,199 (487 to 25,910).04
    Emergency department visits7,753 (6,979 to 8,527)14,544 (13,568 to 15,520)6,791 (5,546 to 8,036)<.001
    Home health visits14,155 (11,842 to 16,468)14,469 (12,018 to 16,921)314 (−3,056 to 3,684).85
    • Alt/comp=alternative/complementary; NMW=nurse midwife; NP=nurse practitioner; PA=physician assistant.

    • ↵a Primary and specialty physician visits in 2002–2003 were compared with those in 2011–2012. The first year that physician specialty was reported in the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) was 2002.

    • ↵b Prescribed medication expenditure data came from the 1996–1997 and 2011–2012 MEPS. The utilization and individual prescribed medication data were from the 1999–2000 and 2011–2012 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES).

    • ↵c Expenditures are inflation adjusted (using the Consumer Price Index) to 2012 US dollars. Expenditure numbers do not add up to the total because of the exclusion of other medical expenditures.

    • Note: Total prescribed medication use and the number of individuals who used a prescribed medication came from the NHANES. All other data came from the MEPS.

Additional Files

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    Supplemental tables

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  • The Article in Brief

    Comparing Medical Ecology, Utilization, and Expenditures Between 1996-1997 and 2011-2012

    Michael E. Johansen

    Background In recent years, US medical expenditures have outpaced inflation and are notably higher than those of other developed countries. This study examines whether increases in expenditures on medical care are related to an increase in the overall number of services used, changes in the types of services provided, and/or the cost or intensity of services delivered.

    What This Study Found Between 1996-1997 and 2011-2012, the number of Americans using medical services was unchanged in many categories of service, while expenditures for medical services increased in every category except primary care physicians and home health. Using nationally representative data, the study compared medical ecology (number of individuals using a service), utilization (number of services), and expenditures (dollars spent) in different categories of medical services. It finds that total expenditures increased by 47 percent, from $246 per individual per month in 1996-1997 to $362 per individual per month in 2011-2012, with large increases in dollars spent in every category except primary care physician and home health. The largest absolute increases were in prescribed medications, specialty physicians, emergency department visits, and likely inpatient hospitalizations. A large percentage of the increase (42 percent) related to increases in prescription drug use. In comparison, in 1996-1997, prescribed medications accounted for 12 percent of total expenditures. The number of individuals using medical services was unchanged in many categories of service (total, outpatient, outpatient physician, users of prescribed medications, primary care and specialty physicians, inpatient hospitalization, and emergency department), increased in other categories (optometry/podiatry, therapy, and alternative/complementary medicine) and decreased in dental and home health. The number of services used largely mirrored the findings for individual use, except for an increase in the number of prescribed medications and a decrease in primary care physician visits.

    Implications

    • Substantially curbing the trend toward higher medical expenditures, the author suggests, will require a greater commitment to working "upstream," at the sources of the challenges facing the US health care system.
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Comparing Medical Ecology, Utilization, and Expenditures Between 1996–1997 and 2011–2012
Michael E. Johansen
The Annals of Family Medicine Jul 2017, 15 (4) 313-321; DOI: 10.1370/afm.2084

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Comparing Medical Ecology, Utilization, and Expenditures Between 1996–1997 and 2011–2012
Michael E. Johansen
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