Assessing Risk for Development of Diabetes in Young Adults

Article Figures & Data

Table 1.

Characteristics of the Study Cohort

Characteristic	Value
ARIC = Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities.
Development of diabetes, %	3.9
Female, %	55.7
Black, %	41.2
Mean age ±SD, y	25.0±3.6
ARIC diabetes risk score ≥4, %	2.1
Body mass index, kg/m²
<25 , %	67.0
25–29.99, %	22.6
>30, %	10.3
Family history of diabetes
Parents, %	13.6
Siblings and parents, %	14.4

Table 2.

Area Under ROC Curve Using a Diabetes Risk Score, Family History of Diabetes, and BMI to Predict Development of Diabetes Within 10 Years

Predictors	Area Under ROC Curve
ARIC = Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities; BMI = body mass index; ROC = receiver operating characteristic.
* Area under the curve significantly different from that of diabetes risk score.
† Not significantly different.
ARIC diabetes risk score	.70
Family history of diabetes
Parents	.57*
Siblings and parents	.58*
BMI
Continuous	.65^†
3 categories	.67^†
3 categories plus family history of diabetes (siblings and parents)	.69^†

Table 3.

Area Under ROC Curve to Predict Development of Diabetes Within Groups of White and Black Participants

Predictors	White	Black
ARIC = Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities; BMI = body mass index; ROC = receiver operating characteristic.
* Not significantly different.
ARIC diabetes risk score	.68	.72
BMI, 3 categories	.63*	.69*
BMI, 3 categories plus family history of diabetes (siblings and parents)	.64*	.73*