PT - JOURNAL ARTICLE AU - Luke T. A. Mounce AU - John L. Campbell AU - William E. Henley AU - Maria C. Tejerina Arreal AU - Ian Porter AU - Jose M. Valderas TI - Predicting Incident Multimorbidity AID - 10.1370/afm.2271 DP - 2018 Jul 01 TA - The Annals of Family Medicine PG - 322--329 VI - 16 IP - 4 4099 - http://www.annfammed.org/content/16/4/322.short 4100 - http://www.annfammed.org/content/16/4/322.full SO - Ann Fam Med2018 Jul 01; 16 AB - PURPOSE Multimorbidity is associated with adverse outcomes, yet research on the determinants of its incidence is lacking. We investigated which sociodemographic, health, and individual lifestyle (eg, physical activity, smoking behavior, body mass index) characteristics predict new cases of multimorbidity.METHODS We used data from 4,564 participants aged 50 years and older in the English Longitudinal Study of Aging that included a 10-year follow-up period. Discrete time-to-event (complementary log-log) models were constructed for exploring the associations of baseline characteristics with outcomes between 2002-2003 and 2012-2013 separately for participants with no initial conditions (n = 1,377) developing multimorbidity, any increase in conditions within 10 years regardless of initial conditions, and the impact of individual conditions on incident multimorbidity.RESULTS The risks of developing multimorbidity were positively associated with age, and they were greater for the least wealthy, for participants who were obese, and for those who reported the lowest levels of physical activity or an external locus of control (believing that life events are outside of one’s control) for all groups regardless of baseline conditions (all linear trends <.05). No significant associations were observed for sex, educational attainment, or social detachment. For participants with any increase in conditions (n = 4,564), a history of smoking was the only additional predictor. For participants with a single baseline condition (n = 1,534), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), asthma, and arrhythmia showed the strongest associations with subsequent multimorbidity.CONCLUSIONS Our findings support the development and implementation of a strategy targeting the prevention of multimorbidity for susceptible groups. This approach should incorporate behavior change addressing lifestyle factors and target health-related locus of control.