Table 4.

Model Performance in the Validation Cohort

Outcome Predicted (Subjects)Number of PatientsPatient With Outcome No. (%)C-Statistic
* Good predictive model (defined a priori as having a C -statistic > 0.70)39,40
Myocardial infarction (all patients)2,912198 (6.8)0.76*
First myocardial infarction (patients with no previous myocardial infarction)2,522112 (4.4)0.62
Stroke (all patients)2,912514 (18)0.79*
First stroke (patients with no previous stroke)2,612317 (12)0.67
Myocardial infarction or stroke (all patients)2,912640 (22)0.78*
First myocardial infarction or stroke (patients with no previous myocardial infarction or stroke)2,326334 (14)0.65
First ischemic heart disease (patients with no previous ischemic heart disease)1,811194 (11)0.63
First heart failure (patients with no previous heart failure)2,481332 (13)0.68
First chronic renal insufficiency (patients with no previous renal insufficiency)2,281151 (6.6)0.81*
All-cause mortality (all patients)2,912378 (13)0.78*