Table 4.

Hip Fracture, Fragility Fracture, or Death Within 2 Years, Predicted by 2 to 4 vs 0 to 1 Risk Factors, According to Risk Model

Total Population (N = 1,248)
Risk ModelTotal NEvents nNo Events nNPV/PPV (%)Specificity/Sensitivity (%)Odds Ratio (95% CI)P ExactVislanda (n = 435)P ExactTingsryd & Emmaboda (n = 418& 395)P Exact
NPV = negative predictive value; PPV = positive predictive value; CI = confidence interval; FRAMO = Fracture and Mortality.
Note: Hypothesis tested by the Fisher exact test. Risk model 1 (FRAMO Index): age =80 years, weight <60 kg, previous fragility fracture, and using arms when rising at least 5 times from sitting position.* Risk model 2: age =80 years, weight <60 kg, previous fragility fracture, and falls during the past 12 months. Women with missing data were recoded as having a low fracture risk; therefore, data for all 1,248 women were included in the Fisher exact 2-sided test and the binary logistic regression analysis.
* Previous fragility fractures: fractures in the hip, lower arm, upper arm, or vertebrae after age 40 years.
† Included reported vertebral fractures from responses to the radiograph question in the Vislanda population.
P <.001.
§ P <.01.
|| Fragility fractures: fractures of the hip, distal radius, proximal humerus, pubic bone, ischial bone, or vertebrae during 2002–2003. ¶ Data for all types of fragility fractures were obtained only for the Vislanda and Tingsryd populations (n = 853).
# P <.05.
Risk model 1 (FRAMO Index): Age, weight, previous fragility fracture,* and using arms to rise
Hip fractures
    0–1 risk factor789678399.2/5.464/811.0<.001<.001.002§
    2–4 risk factors459254347.5 (3.0–18.4)
Fragility fractures||,¶
    0–1 risk factor547953898.4/10.066/781.0<.001<.001.001§
    2–4 risk factors306312756.7 (3.2–14.3)
    0–1 risk factor7892576496.8/24.067/811.0<.001<.001<.001
    2–4 risk factors4591093509.5 (6.0–14.9)
Risk model 2: Age, weight, previous fragility fracture,* and fall
Hip fractures
    0–1 risk factor775976698.8/4.763/711.0<.001.001§.052
    2–4 risk factors473224514.1 (1.9–9.1)
Fragility fractures||,¶
    0–1 risk factor5371252597.8/8.965/701.0<.001<.001.04#
    2–4 risk factors316282884.2 (2.1–8.5)
    0–1 risk factor7753574095.5/21.066/74<.001<.001<.001
    2–4 risk factors473993745.6 (3.7–8.4)