Table 5. Predictors of Overestimating Minimum Acceptable Benefit
PredictorBreast Cancer ScreeningBowel Cancer ScreeningHip Fracture PreventionCVD Prevention
% (95% CI)ORa (95% CI)% (95% CI)ORa (95% CI)% (95% CI)ORa (95% CI)% (95% CI)ORa (95% CI)
Age, y
 50-5458 (46-68)0.4 (0.2-0.7)56 (45-66)0.4 (0.2-0.7)52 (42-63)0.7 (0.4-1.2)28 (19-39)0.5 (0.3-0.9)
 55-5971 (60-80)0.8 (0.4-1.3)70 (59-79)0.7 (0.4-1.3)64 (53-74)1.0 (0.6-1.8)48 (37-58)1.0 (0.6-1.8)
 60-6481 (72-88)1.5 (0.9-2.5)84 (75-90)1.2 (0.7-2.0)71 (62-79)1.3 (0.7-2.2)59 (49-69)1.3 (0.8-2.3)
 65-7078 (68-86)1.079 (69-87)1.071 (61-81)1.051 (40-62)1.0
P valueb<.0001 .0006 .11 .006
Sex
 Male68 (61-74)1.070 (64-76)1.063 (56-69)1.042 (35-49)1.0
 Female78 (71-84)1.4 (0.9-2.0)78 (70-84)1.4 (1.0-2.1)68 (61-75)1.3(0.9-2.0)54 (46-62)1.6 (1.1-2.3)
P valuec .12 .081 .16 .022
Educationd
 Lower84 (76-90)1.086 (79-92)1.082 (74-89)1.067 (58-76)1.0
 Higher67 (61-73)0.4 (0.2-0.6)67 (61-73)0.4 (0.2-0.5)54 (48-60)0.4 (0.3-0.7)38 (32-45)0.4 (0.3-0.5)
P valuec<.0001<.0001 .0001<.0001
Past experiencee
 No73 (67-78)0.8 (0.5-1.2)65 (60-71)1.0 (0.5-1.8)48 (42-53)1.0 (0.6-1.8)
 Yes73 (64-80)1.062 (47-75)1.047 (33-61)1.0
P valuec .3 .93 .95
  • VD = cardiovascular disease; OR = odds ratio.

  • a OR calculated from multivariable logistic regression with the proportional odds assumption, across all response levels excluding unknown. OR >1.0 indicates higher estimates of benefit.

  • b df = 3.

  • c df = 1.

  • d Lower = primary or secondary school only. Higher = post-school qualification.

  • e Prior bowel cancer screening, diagnosis of osteoporosis or current medication for osteoporosis, and history of vascular disease. Breast cancer screening—only 5 women had never been screened so not included in the mode.