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In order to show that an exposure, that cannot be randomized, causes any downstream adverse events, you need to apply the Bradford Hill criteria. No single researcher, nor any medical body has done this.
1) Obesity is confounded with hyperinsulinemia and hyperinflammation.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41366-022-01211-2
2) Obesity is most likely to be downstream from hyperinsulinemia.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2777423?res...
3) Collider bias is not a possible explanation when general populations also show people with obesity living longer.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/obr.13588
Consider the possibility that medicalized weight stigma may be behind this focus on making fat people slim.
Why should fat patients help practitioners discriminate against them by getting on a scale?