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Research ArticleOriginal Research

Impact of UK Primary Care Policy Reforms on Short-Stay Unplanned Hospital Admissions for Children With Primary Care–Sensitive Conditions

Elizabeth Cecil, Alex Bottle, Mike Sharland and Sonia Saxena
The Annals of Family Medicine May 2015, 13 (3) 214-220; DOI: https://doi.org/10.1370/afm.1786
Elizabeth Cecil
1Department of Primary Care and Public Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, United Kingdom
MSc
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  • For correspondence: e.cecil@imperial.ac.uk
Alex Bottle
1Department of Primary Care and Public Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, United Kingdom
PhD
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Mike Sharland
2Paediatric Infectious Disease Unit, St George’s Hospital, University of London, United Kingdom
MD
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Sonia Saxena
1Department of Primary Care and Public Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, United Kingdom
MD
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    Table 1

    Major UK National Health Service Reforms in 2004

    Primary care reforms1
    Allowed primary care physicians greater flexibility in the services they provided, for example, opting out of responsibility for out-of-hours care.
    Financial incentive scheme for primary care physicians to deliver clinical and organizational care, assessed through performance target achievement (the Quality and Outcomes Framework).
    Emergency care reforms
    Tightening of targets so that 98% of patients wait no more than 4 hours in an emergency department from arrival to hospital admission, transfer, or discharge.2
    Hospital reforms
    Introduction of payment-by-results schemes changed the way a hospital was paid, from a block contract payment system for service provision to one remunerating activity, such as episodes of care.3
    • View popup
    Table 2

    Unplanned Hospital Admissions for 2000–2001 and 2010–2011 Among Children by Age-Group and Overall

    <1 Year1–4 Years5–9 Years10–14 YearsOverall
    Measure2000–20012011–20122000–20012011–20122000–20012011–20122000–20012011–201122000–20012011–2012
    Population, No.a575,000679,1002,405,9002,649,6003,176,9002,990,1003,197,8003,067,4009,355,6009,386,200
    Children admitted, No.115,132159,486163,508207,57394,85796,23295,60191,354469,098554,645
    Total unplanned admissions, No.150,694215,401202,161267,553112,772118,500115,547114,339581,174715,793
    Mean no. of admissions per child1.311.351.241.291.191.231.211.251.241.29
    Length of stay, mean (SD), days3.0 (27.0)1.5 (4.5)2.1 (23.7)1.0 (2.8)2.4 (25.0)1.2 (3.2)3.2 (31.5)1.6 (4.8)2.6 (26.5)1.3 (4.0)
    Boys, No. (%)86,823 (57.6)123,384 (57.3)115,818 (57.3)152,984 (57.2)65,481 (58.1)67,636 (57.1)65,753 (56.9)61,722 (54.0)333,875 (57.4)405,726 (56.7)
    Readmission, No. (%)b17,554 (11.6)28,426 (13.2)16,995 (8.4)26,523 (9.9)8,545 (7.6)11,023 (9.3)10,032 (8.7)11,631 (10.2)53,126 (9.1)77,603 (10.8)
    Same-day discharge, No. (%)c45,595 (30.3)97,531 (45.3)71,376 (35.3)134,516 (50.3)33,424 (29.6)52,827 (44.6)27,167 (23.5)43,562 (38.1)177,562 (30.6)328,436 (45.9)
    Overnight stay, No. (%)c45,271 (30.0)55,142 (25.6)74,900 (37.0)81,322 (30.4)43,260 (38.4)37,671 (31.8)42,333 (36.6)36,608 (32.0)205,764 (35.4)210,743 (29.4)
    ≥2-day stay, No. (%)58,731 (39.0)56,391 (26.2)55,098 (27.3)46,099 (17.2)35,525 (31.5)24,961 (21.1)45,307 (39.2)30,378 (26.6)194,661 (33.5)157,829 (22.0)
    Type of admission
     Infection, No. (%)83,281 (55.3)104,770 (48.6)101,918 (50.4)154,743 (57.8)37,154 (32.9)40,943 (34.6)29,736 (25.7)28,600 (25.0)252,089 (43.4)329,056 (46.0)
     Chronic, No. (%)40,693 (27.0)63,226 (29.4)57,253 (28.3)63,301 (23.7)35,613 (31.6)39,839 (33.6)34,142 (29.5)39,366 (34.4)167,701 (28.9)205,732 (28.7)
     Injury, No. (%)5,980 (4.0)9,156 (4.3)26,454 (13.1)34,840 (13.0)28,323 (25.1)28,236 (23.8)31,255 (27.0)29,862 (26.1)92,012 (15.8)102,094 (14.3)
     Other, No. (%)20,740 (13.8)38,249 (17.8)16,536 (8.2)14,669 (5.5)11,682 (10.4)9,482 (8.0)20,414 (17.7)16,511 (14.4)69,372 (11.9)78,911 (11.0)
    AHRQ Pediatric Quality Indicators11
     Intestinal infection, No. (%)d7,959 (5.3)10,008 (4.6)10,995 (5.4)13,647 (5.1)2,459 (2.2)2,735 (2.3)1,145 (1.0)1,306 (1.1)22,558 (3.9)27,696 (3.9)
     Urinary tract infection, No. (%)3,023 (2.0)5,088 (2.4)2,686 (1.3)3,570 (1.3)1,624 (1.4)1,992 (1.7)943 (0.8)1,162 (1.0)8,276 (1.4)11,812 (1.7)
     Asthma, No. (%)936 (0.62)166 (0.08)13,267 (6.6)9,796 (3.7)6,607 (5.9)7,233 (6.1)4,128 (3.6)4,171 (3.6)24,938 (4.3)21,337 (3.0)
     Diabetes, No. (%)21 (0.01)21 (0.01)680 (0.3)737 (0.3)1,310 (1.2)1,286 (1.1)2,614 (2.3)2,775 (2.4)4,625 (0.8)4,819 (0.7)
    Referred by primary care physician, No. (%)65,466 (43.4)64,338 (29.9)69,675 (34.5)68,542 (25.6)34,156 (30.3)25,370 (21.4)32,191 (27.9)21,557 (18.9)201,488 (34.7)179,807 (25.1)
    • AHRQ = Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality.

    • ↵a Office of National Statistics England midyear estimate population figures.

    • ↵b Readmission within 28 days of an index admission.

    • ↵c Same-day discharge and overnight stay combined make short-stay admissions (those with a stay lasting <2 days).

    • ↵d Includes gastroenteritis.

    • View popup
    Table 3

    Standardized Short- and Long-Stay Annual Admission Rates by Year

    Infectious IllnessChronic ConditionsInjuryAll Cause
    YearShort StayLong StayShort StayLong StayShort StayLong StayShort StayLong Stay
    200017.38.810.85.47.22.239.319.1
    200119.08.511.65.37.52.342.318.7
    200218.67.712.05.07.42.242.117.3
    200320.17.812.14.87.62.144.117.1
    200419.97.313.44.87.61.945.416.4
    200521.77.613.84.77.91.947.816.4
    200621.46.914.74.68.11.848.315.3
    200721.76.514.54.47.91.748.514.7
    200822.66.615.44.47.91.550.614.7
    200924.06.714.84.38.21.651.614.8
    201025.17.114.54.28.41.553.015.0
    201123.86.414.04.08.71.551.314.0
    • Notes: Directly standardized unplanned admission rates are per 1,000 children aged 0 to 14 years with no readmission within 28 days. Short-stay admissions were unplanned admissions with a length of stay of less than 2 days. Long-stays admission were admissions with a length of stay of 2 days or more. CIs for the standardized rates are very narrow (maximum span 0.3) and are not shown.

    • View popup
    Table 4

    Annual Rate Ratios Estimating Trends Before and After 2004 Primary Care Policy Reforms in Admission Rates

    Short-Stay Admission RatesaLong-Stay Admission Ratesb
    Admission Type% Annual ChangeRate Ratioc (95% CI)% Annual ChangeRate Ratioc (95% CI)
    Infectious illness
    Trend pre 200451.05 (1.05–1.05)−40.96 (0.96–0.96)
    Change 2003 to 200401.00 (1.00–1.00)−60.94 (0.94–0.95)
    Trend post 200431.03 (1.03–1.03)−10.99 (0.99–0.99)
    Chronic conditions
    Trend pre 200431.03 (1.03–1.04)−40.96 (0.96–0.96)
    Change 2003 to 2004111.11 (1.11–1.12)11.01 (1.01–1.02)
    Trend post 200411.01 (1.01–1.01)−10.99 (0.98–0.99)
    Injury
    Trend pre 200411.01 (1.01–1.02)−20.98 (0.98–0.99)
    Change 2003 to 200401.0 0 (0.99–1.01)−70.93 (0.91–0.95)
    Trend post 200421.02 (1.01–1.03)−40.96 (0.95–0.97)
    All cause
    Trend pre 200441.04 (1.04–1.04)−40.96 (0.96–0.97)
    Change 2003 to 200441.04 (1.03–1.04)−30.97 (0.97–0.97)
    Trend post 200421.02 (1.02–1.02)−20.98 (0.98–0.98)
    • Notes: Interrupted time series regression models were individually constructed for short- and long-stay admissions in 3 diagnosis categories. Data are for 326 local authority areas over 12 years (2000–2001 through 2011–2012) among children aged younger than 15 years.

    • ↵a Unplanned admissions with a length of stay of less than 2 days.

    • ↵b Unplanned admissions with a length of stay of 2 days or more.

    • ↵c Calculated from model parameter coefficients.

    • View popup
    Table 5

    Annual Odds Ratios Estimating Trends in Primary Care Physician–Referred Admissions Before and After 2004 Primary Care Policy Reforms

    Admission Type% Annual ChangeOdds Ratioa (95% CI)
    Infectious illness
    Trend pre 2004−80.92 (0.92–0.92)
    Change 2003 to 2004−120.88 (0.86–0.89)
    Trend post 2004−20.98 (0.98–0.99)
    Chronic conditions
    Trend pre 2004−70.93 (0.93–0.93)
    Change 2003 to 2004−130.87 (0.86–0.89)
    Trend post 2004−30.97 (0.96–0.98)
    Injury
    Trend pre 2004−50.95 (0.94–0.96)
    Change 2003 to 2004−100.90 (0.85–0.95)
    Trend post 2004−10.99 (0.96–1.02)
    • Note: Data are for 12 years (2000–2001 through 2011–2012) among children younger than 15 years.

    • ↵a Annual odds ratios were estimated from the model parameter coefficients, which were adjusted for age and sex.

Additional Files

  • Tables
  • Supplemental Appendixes 1-3

    Supplemental data: Appendixes 1-3

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    • Adobe PDF - Cecil_Supp_App_1-3.pdf
  • The Article in Brief

    Impact of UK Primary Care Policy Reforms on Short-Stay Unplanned Hospital Admissions for Children With Primary Care-Sensitive Conditions

    Elizabeth Cecil , and colleagues

    Background In 2004, the United Kingdom National Health Service (NHS) introduced major reforms to primary care policy which aimed to improve working conditions for primary care physicians and health outcomes for patients. It focused on improving chronic disease management in adults, with few health targets for children?s care. Revisions allowing primary care physicians to opt out of providing acute primary care services during evenings and weekends reduced access associated with increased emergency department visits. This study assessed the impact of these reforms on potentially avoidable short stay unplanned hospital admissions for children with primary care sensitive conditions.

    What This Study Found The introduction of health care reforms coincided with an increase in short-stay admission rates for children with primary-care sensitive chronic conditions and with more children being admitted through emergency departments. Specifically, between April 2000 and March 2013, there were 7.8 million unplanned hospital admissions for children younger than 15 years. More than one-half were short stay admissions for potentially avoidable infections and chronic conditions. The primary care policy reforms implemented in April 2004 were associated with an 8 percent increase in short-stay admission rates for chronic conditions, equivalent to 8,500 additional admissions, above the 3 percent annual increasing trend. These increases, the authors note, were accompanied by falls in admissions of children referred by a primary care physician. Notably, the policy reforms were not associated with an increase in short-stay admission rates for infectious illness, which were increasing by 5 percent annual before April 2004.

    Implications

    • The authors suggest that the more steady increase in admission rates for primary care-sensitive infections may be attributed to lowered thresholds for hospital admission.
    • While the authors cannot infer causation from the findings, the magnitude of an 11 percent increase in short-stay admissions for chronic disease lends weight to speculation that such admissions may increase when primary care provision is withdrawn. That short-stay admission rates among children with chronic conditions changed immediately in 2004 and are now surpassing other causes of admission in older children, they assert, is particularly concerning. They contend that this development may indicate an adverse impact of financial incentive schemes focusing on chronic conditions in adults.
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Impact of UK Primary Care Policy Reforms on Short-Stay Unplanned Hospital Admissions for Children With Primary Care–Sensitive Conditions
Elizabeth Cecil, Alex Bottle, Mike Sharland, Sonia Saxena
The Annals of Family Medicine May 2015, 13 (3) 214-220; DOI: 10.1370/afm.1786

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Impact of UK Primary Care Policy Reforms on Short-Stay Unplanned Hospital Admissions for Children With Primary Care–Sensitive Conditions
Elizabeth Cecil, Alex Bottle, Mike Sharland, Sonia Saxena
The Annals of Family Medicine May 2015, 13 (3) 214-220; DOI: 10.1370/afm.1786
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