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Primary care reforms1 Allowed primary care physicians greater flexibility in the services they provided, for example, opting out of responsibility for out-of-hours care. Financial incentive scheme for primary care physicians to deliver clinical and organizational care, assessed through performance target achievement (the Quality and Outcomes Framework). Emergency care reforms Tightening of targets so that 98% of patients wait no more than 4 hours in an emergency department from arrival to hospital admission, transfer, or discharge.2 Hospital reforms Introduction of payment-by-results schemes changed the way a hospital was paid, from a block contract payment system for service provision to one remunerating activity, such as episodes of care.3 - Table 2
Unplanned Hospital Admissions for 2000–2001 and 2010–2011 Among Children by Age-Group and Overall
<1 Year 1–4 Years 5–9 Years 10–14 Years Overall Measure 2000–2001 2011–2012 2000–2001 2011–2012 2000–2001 2011–2012 2000–2001 2011–20112 2000–2001 2011–2012 Population, No.a 575,000 679,100 2,405,900 2,649,600 3,176,900 2,990,100 3,197,800 3,067,400 9,355,600 9,386,200 Children admitted, No. 115,132 159,486 163,508 207,573 94,857 96,232 95,601 91,354 469,098 554,645 Total unplanned admissions, No. 150,694 215,401 202,161 267,553 112,772 118,500 115,547 114,339 581,174 715,793 Mean no. of admissions per child 1.31 1.35 1.24 1.29 1.19 1.23 1.21 1.25 1.24 1.29 Length of stay, mean (SD), days 3.0 (27.0) 1.5 (4.5) 2.1 (23.7) 1.0 (2.8) 2.4 (25.0) 1.2 (3.2) 3.2 (31.5) 1.6 (4.8) 2.6 (26.5) 1.3 (4.0) Boys, No. (%) 86,823 (57.6) 123,384 (57.3) 115,818 (57.3) 152,984 (57.2) 65,481 (58.1) 67,636 (57.1) 65,753 (56.9) 61,722 (54.0) 333,875 (57.4) 405,726 (56.7) Readmission, No. (%)b 17,554 (11.6) 28,426 (13.2) 16,995 (8.4) 26,523 (9.9) 8,545 (7.6) 11,023 (9.3) 10,032 (8.7) 11,631 (10.2) 53,126 (9.1) 77,603 (10.8) Same-day discharge, No. (%)c 45,595 (30.3) 97,531 (45.3) 71,376 (35.3) 134,516 (50.3) 33,424 (29.6) 52,827 (44.6) 27,167 (23.5) 43,562 (38.1) 177,562 (30.6) 328,436 (45.9) Overnight stay, No. (%)c 45,271 (30.0) 55,142 (25.6) 74,900 (37.0) 81,322 (30.4) 43,260 (38.4) 37,671 (31.8) 42,333 (36.6) 36,608 (32.0) 205,764 (35.4) 210,743 (29.4) ≥2-day stay, No. (%) 58,731 (39.0) 56,391 (26.2) 55,098 (27.3) 46,099 (17.2) 35,525 (31.5) 24,961 (21.1) 45,307 (39.2) 30,378 (26.6) 194,661 (33.5) 157,829 (22.0) Type of admission Infection, No. (%) 83,281 (55.3) 104,770 (48.6) 101,918 (50.4) 154,743 (57.8) 37,154 (32.9) 40,943 (34.6) 29,736 (25.7) 28,600 (25.0) 252,089 (43.4) 329,056 (46.0) Chronic, No. (%) 40,693 (27.0) 63,226 (29.4) 57,253 (28.3) 63,301 (23.7) 35,613 (31.6) 39,839 (33.6) 34,142 (29.5) 39,366 (34.4) 167,701 (28.9) 205,732 (28.7) Injury, No. (%) 5,980 (4.0) 9,156 (4.3) 26,454 (13.1) 34,840 (13.0) 28,323 (25.1) 28,236 (23.8) 31,255 (27.0) 29,862 (26.1) 92,012 (15.8) 102,094 (14.3) Other, No. (%) 20,740 (13.8) 38,249 (17.8) 16,536 (8.2) 14,669 (5.5) 11,682 (10.4) 9,482 (8.0) 20,414 (17.7) 16,511 (14.4) 69,372 (11.9) 78,911 (11.0) AHRQ Pediatric Quality Indicators11 Intestinal infection, No. (%)d 7,959 (5.3) 10,008 (4.6) 10,995 (5.4) 13,647 (5.1) 2,459 (2.2) 2,735 (2.3) 1,145 (1.0) 1,306 (1.1) 22,558 (3.9) 27,696 (3.9) Urinary tract infection, No. (%) 3,023 (2.0) 5,088 (2.4) 2,686 (1.3) 3,570 (1.3) 1,624 (1.4) 1,992 (1.7) 943 (0.8) 1,162 (1.0) 8,276 (1.4) 11,812 (1.7) Asthma, No. (%) 936 (0.62) 166 (0.08) 13,267 (6.6) 9,796 (3.7) 6,607 (5.9) 7,233 (6.1) 4,128 (3.6) 4,171 (3.6) 24,938 (4.3) 21,337 (3.0) Diabetes, No. (%) 21 (0.01) 21 (0.01) 680 (0.3) 737 (0.3) 1,310 (1.2) 1,286 (1.1) 2,614 (2.3) 2,775 (2.4) 4,625 (0.8) 4,819 (0.7) Referred by primary care physician, No. (%) 65,466 (43.4) 64,338 (29.9) 69,675 (34.5) 68,542 (25.6) 34,156 (30.3) 25,370 (21.4) 32,191 (27.9) 21,557 (18.9) 201,488 (34.7) 179,807 (25.1) AHRQ = Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality.
↵a Office of National Statistics England midyear estimate population figures.
↵b Readmission within 28 days of an index admission.
↵c Same-day discharge and overnight stay combined make short-stay admissions (those with a stay lasting <2 days).
↵d Includes gastroenteritis.
Infectious Illness Chronic Conditions Injury All Cause Year Short Stay Long Stay Short Stay Long Stay Short Stay Long Stay Short Stay Long Stay 2000 17.3 8.8 10.8 5.4 7.2 2.2 39.3 19.1 2001 19.0 8.5 11.6 5.3 7.5 2.3 42.3 18.7 2002 18.6 7.7 12.0 5.0 7.4 2.2 42.1 17.3 2003 20.1 7.8 12.1 4.8 7.6 2.1 44.1 17.1 2004 19.9 7.3 13.4 4.8 7.6 1.9 45.4 16.4 2005 21.7 7.6 13.8 4.7 7.9 1.9 47.8 16.4 2006 21.4 6.9 14.7 4.6 8.1 1.8 48.3 15.3 2007 21.7 6.5 14.5 4.4 7.9 1.7 48.5 14.7 2008 22.6 6.6 15.4 4.4 7.9 1.5 50.6 14.7 2009 24.0 6.7 14.8 4.3 8.2 1.6 51.6 14.8 2010 25.1 7.1 14.5 4.2 8.4 1.5 53.0 15.0 2011 23.8 6.4 14.0 4.0 8.7 1.5 51.3 14.0 Notes: Directly standardized unplanned admission rates are per 1,000 children aged 0 to 14 years with no readmission within 28 days. Short-stay admissions were unplanned admissions with a length of stay of less than 2 days. Long-stays admission were admissions with a length of stay of 2 days or more. CIs for the standardized rates are very narrow (maximum span 0.3) and are not shown.
- Table 4
Annual Rate Ratios Estimating Trends Before and After 2004 Primary Care Policy Reforms in Admission Rates
Short-Stay Admission Ratesa Long-Stay Admission Ratesb Admission Type % Annual Change Rate Ratioc (95% CI) % Annual Change Rate Ratioc (95% CI) Infectious illness Trend pre 2004 5 1.05 (1.05–1.05) −4 0.96 (0.96–0.96) Change 2003 to 2004 0 1.00 (1.00–1.00) −6 0.94 (0.94–0.95) Trend post 2004 3 1.03 (1.03–1.03) −1 0.99 (0.99–0.99) Chronic conditions Trend pre 2004 3 1.03 (1.03–1.04) −4 0.96 (0.96–0.96) Change 2003 to 2004 11 1.11 (1.11–1.12) 1 1.01 (1.01–1.02) Trend post 2004 1 1.01 (1.01–1.01) −1 0.99 (0.98–0.99) Injury Trend pre 2004 1 1.01 (1.01–1.02) −2 0.98 (0.98–0.99) Change 2003 to 2004 0 1.0 0 (0.99–1.01) −7 0.93 (0.91–0.95) Trend post 2004 2 1.02 (1.01–1.03) −4 0.96 (0.95–0.97) All cause Trend pre 2004 4 1.04 (1.04–1.04) −4 0.96 (0.96–0.97) Change 2003 to 2004 4 1.04 (1.03–1.04) −3 0.97 (0.97–0.97) Trend post 2004 2 1.02 (1.02–1.02) −2 0.98 (0.98–0.98) Notes: Interrupted time series regression models were individually constructed for short- and long-stay admissions in 3 diagnosis categories. Data are for 326 local authority areas over 12 years (2000–2001 through 2011–2012) among children aged younger than 15 years.
↵a Unplanned admissions with a length of stay of less than 2 days.
↵b Unplanned admissions with a length of stay of 2 days or more.
↵c Calculated from model parameter coefficients.
- Table 5
Annual Odds Ratios Estimating Trends in Primary Care Physician–Referred Admissions Before and After 2004 Primary Care Policy Reforms
Admission Type % Annual Change Odds Ratioa (95% CI) Infectious illness Trend pre 2004 −8 0.92 (0.92–0.92) Change 2003 to 2004 −12 0.88 (0.86–0.89) Trend post 2004 −2 0.98 (0.98–0.99) Chronic conditions Trend pre 2004 −7 0.93 (0.93–0.93) Change 2003 to 2004 −13 0.87 (0.86–0.89) Trend post 2004 −3 0.97 (0.96–0.98) Injury Trend pre 2004 −5 0.95 (0.94–0.96) Change 2003 to 2004 −10 0.90 (0.85–0.95) Trend post 2004 −1 0.99 (0.96–1.02) Note: Data are for 12 years (2000–2001 through 2011–2012) among children younger than 15 years.
↵a Annual odds ratios were estimated from the model parameter coefficients, which were adjusted for age and sex.
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The Article in Brief
Impact of UK Primary Care Policy Reforms on Short-Stay Unplanned Hospital Admissions for Children With Primary Care-Sensitive Conditions
Elizabeth Cecil , and colleagues
Background In 2004, the United Kingdom National Health Service (NHS) introduced major reforms to primary care policy which aimed to improve working conditions for primary care physicians and health outcomes for patients. It focused on improving chronic disease management in adults, with few health targets for children?s care. Revisions allowing primary care physicians to opt out of providing acute primary care services during evenings and weekends reduced access associated with increased emergency department visits. This study assessed the impact of these reforms on potentially avoidable short stay unplanned hospital admissions for children with primary care sensitive conditions.
What This Study Found The introduction of health care reforms coincided with an increase in short-stay admission rates for children with primary-care sensitive chronic conditions and with more children being admitted through emergency departments. Specifically, between April 2000 and March 2013, there were 7.8 million unplanned hospital admissions for children younger than 15 years. More than one-half were short stay admissions for potentially avoidable infections and chronic conditions. The primary care policy reforms implemented in April 2004 were associated with an 8 percent increase in short-stay admission rates for chronic conditions, equivalent to 8,500 additional admissions, above the 3 percent annual increasing trend. These increases, the authors note, were accompanied by falls in admissions of children referred by a primary care physician. Notably, the policy reforms were not associated with an increase in short-stay admission rates for infectious illness, which were increasing by 5 percent annual before April 2004.
Implications
- The authors suggest that the more steady increase in admission rates for primary care-sensitive infections may be attributed to lowered thresholds for hospital admission.
- While the authors cannot infer causation from the findings, the magnitude of an 11 percent increase in short-stay admissions for chronic disease lends weight to speculation that such admissions may increase when primary care provision is withdrawn. That short-stay admission rates among children with chronic conditions changed immediately in 2004 and are now surpassing other causes of admission in older children, they assert, is particularly concerning. They contend that this development may indicate an adverse impact of financial incentive schemes focusing on chronic conditions in adults.