Skip to main content

Main menu

  • Home
  • Current Issue
  • Content
    • Current Issue
    • Early Access
    • Multimedia
    • Podcast
    • Collections
    • Past Issues
    • Articles by Subject
    • Articles by Type
    • Supplements
    • Plain Language Summaries
    • Calls for Papers
  • Info for
    • Authors
    • Reviewers
    • Job Seekers
    • Media
  • About
    • Annals of Family Medicine
    • Editorial Staff & Boards
    • Sponsoring Organizations
    • Copyrights & Permissions
    • Announcements
  • Engage
    • Engage
    • e-Letters (Comments)
    • Subscribe
    • Podcast
    • E-mail Alerts
    • Journal Club
    • RSS
    • Annals Forum (Archive)
  • Contact
    • Contact Us
  • Careers

User menu

  • My alerts

Search

  • Advanced search
Annals of Family Medicine
  • My alerts
Annals of Family Medicine

Advanced Search

  • Home
  • Current Issue
  • Content
    • Current Issue
    • Early Access
    • Multimedia
    • Podcast
    • Collections
    • Past Issues
    • Articles by Subject
    • Articles by Type
    • Supplements
    • Plain Language Summaries
    • Calls for Papers
  • Info for
    • Authors
    • Reviewers
    • Job Seekers
    • Media
  • About
    • Annals of Family Medicine
    • Editorial Staff & Boards
    • Sponsoring Organizations
    • Copyrights & Permissions
    • Announcements
  • Engage
    • Engage
    • e-Letters (Comments)
    • Subscribe
    • Podcast
    • E-mail Alerts
    • Journal Club
    • RSS
    • Annals Forum (Archive)
  • Contact
    • Contact Us
  • Careers
  • Follow annalsfm on Twitter
  • Visit annalsfm on Facebook
Meeting ReportAcute and emergency care

Predicting unplanned hospitalisations in older adults using routinely recorded general practice data

Jet Klunder
The Annals of Family Medicine November 2023, 21 (Supplement 3) 5562; DOI: https://doi.org/10.1370/afm.22.s1.5562
Jet Klunder
MD
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  • Article
  • eLetters
  • Info & Metrics
  • PDF
Loading

Abstract

Context: Unplanned hospitalisations represent a hazardous event for older persons. Timely identification of high-risk individuals using a prediction tool may facilitate preventive interventions.

Objective: To develop and validate an easy-to-use prediction model for unplanned hospitalisations in community-dwelling older adults using readily available data to allow rapid bedside assessment by general practitioners.

Study Design and Analysis: retrospective study

Setting or Dataset: general practice electronic health records linked with national administrative data

Population Studied: 243,129 community dwelling adults aged 65 years and over

Intervention/Instrument: The dataset was geographically split into a development (58.7%) and validation (41.3%) sample. The model was developed using logistic regression with backward selection. The models were validated internally and externally. We evaluated the performance of three different models with increasingly smaller selections of candidate predictors (i.e. optimal, readily-available and easy-to-use model, respectively). Predictive performance was assessed by area under the curve (AUC) and calibration plots.

Outcome Measures: unplanned hospital admissions within 6 months.

Results: In both samples, 7.6% had at least one unplanned hospitalisation within 6 months. The discriminative ability of the three models was comparable and remained stable after geographic validation. The easy-to-use model included age, sex, prior hospitalisations, pulmonary emphysema, heart failure and polypharmacy. Its discriminative ability after validation was AUC 0.72 [95% confidence interval: 0.72-0.71]. Calibration was good.

Conclusions: Our models showed satisfactory predictive ability. Reducing the number of predictors and geographic validation did not impact predictive performance, demonstrating the robustness of the model. We developed an easy-to-use tool that may assist general practitioners in decision-making and targeted preventive interventions.

  • © 2023 Annals of Family Medicine, Inc.
Previous
Back to top

In this issue

The Annals of Family Medicine: 21 (Supplement 3)
The Annals of Family Medicine: 21 (Supplement 3)
Vol. 21, Issue Supplement 3
1 Nov 2023
  • Table of Contents
  • Index by author
Download PDF
Article Alerts
Sign In to Email Alerts with your Email Address
Email Article

Thank you for your interest in spreading the word on Annals of Family Medicine.

NOTE: We only request your email address so that the person you are recommending the page to knows that you wanted them to see it, and that it is not junk mail. We do not capture any email address.

Enter multiple addresses on separate lines or separate them with commas.
Predicting unplanned hospitalisations in older adults using routinely recorded general practice data
(Your Name) has sent you a message from Annals of Family Medicine
(Your Name) thought you would like to see the Annals of Family Medicine web site.
CAPTCHA
This question is for testing whether or not you are a human visitor and to prevent automated spam submissions.
1 + 1 =
Solve this simple math problem and enter the result. E.g. for 1+3, enter 4.
Citation Tools
Predicting unplanned hospitalisations in older adults using routinely recorded general practice data
Jet Klunder
The Annals of Family Medicine Nov 2023, 21 (Supplement 3) 5562; DOI: 10.1370/afm.22.s1.5562

Citation Manager Formats

  • BibTeX
  • Bookends
  • EasyBib
  • EndNote (tagged)
  • EndNote 8 (xml)
  • Medlars
  • Mendeley
  • Papers
  • RefWorks Tagged
  • Ref Manager
  • RIS
  • Zotero
Get Permissions
Share
Predicting unplanned hospitalisations in older adults using routinely recorded general practice data
Jet Klunder
The Annals of Family Medicine Nov 2023, 21 (Supplement 3) 5562; DOI: 10.1370/afm.22.s1.5562
Twitter logo Facebook logo Mendeley logo
  • Tweet Widget
  • Facebook Like
  • Google Plus One

Jump to section

  • Article
  • eLetters
  • Info & Metrics
  • PDF

Related Articles

  • No related articles found.
  • Google Scholar

Cited By...

  • No citing articles found.
  • Google Scholar

More in this TOC Section

  • Low-Value Opioid Prescribing Trends for Acute Low-Back Pain in Rural Virginia Between 2019-2021
  • Oral versus intravenous antibiotics for the initial treatment of acute pyelonephritis in adults: a systematic review
  • Absinthe Minded: The Forgotten Phenobarbital
Show more Acute and emergency care

Similar Articles

Content

  • Current Issue
  • Past Issues
  • Early Access
  • Plain-Language Summaries
  • Multimedia
  • Podcast
  • Articles by Type
  • Articles by Subject
  • Supplements
  • Calls for Papers

Info for

  • Authors
  • Reviewers
  • Job Seekers
  • Media

Engage

  • E-mail Alerts
  • e-Letters (Comments)
  • RSS
  • Journal Club
  • Submit a Manuscript
  • Subscribe
  • Family Medicine Careers

About

  • About Us
  • Editorial Board & Staff
  • Sponsoring Organizations
  • Copyrights & Permissions
  • Contact Us
  • eLetter/Comments Policy

© 2025 Annals of Family Medicine