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Research ArticleOriginal Research

Continuity of Primary Care and Emergency Hospital Admissions Among Older Patients in England

Peter Tammes, Sarah Purdy, Chris Salisbury, Fiona MacKichan, Daniel Lasserson and Richard W. Morris
The Annals of Family Medicine November 2017, 15 (6) 515-522; DOI: https://doi.org/10.1370/afm.2136
Peter Tammes
1Centre for Academic Primary Care, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
MA, PhD
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  • For correspondence: p.tammes@bristol.ac.uk
Sarah Purdy
1Centre for Academic Primary Care, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
MBBS, MD, MPH
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Chris Salisbury
1Centre for Academic Primary Care, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
MBChB, MSc, MD
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Fiona MacKichan
1Centre for Academic Primary Care, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
MSc, PhD
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Daniel Lasserson
2Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
3Department of Gerontology, Oxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, John Radcliffe Hospital, Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
MA, MD
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Richard W. Morris
1Centre for Academic Primary Care, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
MSc, PhD
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Article Figures & Data

Figures

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  • Figure 1
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    Figure 1

    Distribution of Bice and Boxerman index scores among the 8,248 patients in the prospective cohort analysis.

    Higher score indicates greater continuity of care.

  • Figure 2
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    Figure 2

    Distribution of appointed general practitioner index scores among the 2,892 patients in the nested case-control analysis.

    a Proportion of visits to general practitioner most recently visited. Higher score indicates greater continuity of care.

Tables

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    • View popup
    Table 1

    Association Between BB Index Score and Risk of Emergency Hospital Admission in the Prospective Cohort Analysis (N = 8,248)

    BB Index ScorePatients, No.UnadjustedAdjusteda
    Hazard Ratio (95% CI)P ValueHazard Ratio (95% CI)P Value
    Of the patient
     0951.589 (0.970–2.604).072.272 (1.371–3.764).001
     Q1 (>0 to <0.247)1,8921.188 (0.953–1.482).131.123 (0.882–1.431).35
     Q2 (0.247 to <0.383)1,8911.091 (0.875–1.358).441.050 (0.830–1.329).69
     Q3 (0.383 to <0.567)1,9011.101 (0.885–1.369).391.053 (0.837–1.323).66
     Q4 (0.567 to <1)1,8941.031 (0.829–1.281).780.963 (0.768–1.206).74
     1 (ref)5751.000–1.000–
    Of the practice, average
     Q1 (<0.336)2,0851.083 (0.915–1.282).350.968 (0.809–1.158).70
     Q2 (0.366 to <0.436)2,0170.916 (0.771–1.089).320.853 (0.718–1.014).07
     Q3 (0.436 to <0.535)2,0680.871 (0.735–1.031).110.878 (0.744–1.037).12
     Q4 (0.535) (ref)2,0781.000–1.000–
    • BB=Bice and Boxerman; Q=quartile ref=reference category.

    • Note: Estimated hazard ratios are from mixed-effects Weibull regression analysis.

    • ↵a Adjusted for age, sex, number of general practitioner consultations, having had a previous emergency hospital admission in 2010–2012, deprivation level, general practitioner practice location (urban/rural), number of general practitioners in a practice, and the following morbidities: diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, asthma, epilepsy, cancer, stroke, coronary heart disease, chronic renal disease, depression and schizophrenia. For the complete table, see Supplemental Table 2 (http://www.annfammed.org/content/15/6/515/suppl/DC1).

    • View popup
    Table 2

    Association Between BB Index Score and Odds of Emergency Hospital Admission in the Nested Case-Control Analysis (N=2,892)

    BB Index ScoreCase Patients, No.Control Patients, No.UnadjustedAdjusteda
    Odds Ratio95% CIP ValueOdds Ratio95% CIP Value
    014601.5250.752–3.094.242.1481.009–4.572.047
    Q1 (>0 to <0.257)1884462.6741.762–4.059<.0011.8321.157–2.901.01
    Q2 (0.257 to <0.395)1714372.1371.422–3.212<.0011.5691.002–2.427.049
    Q3 (0.395 to <0.576)1764861.9891.331–2.973.0011.3700.881–2.130.16
    Q4 (0.576 to <1)1714591.9351.307–2.866.0011.1700.758–1.807.48
    1 (ref)492351.000–1.000–
    • BB=Bice and Boxerman; Q=quartile; ref=reference category.

    • Note: Estimated odds ratios from a conditional (fixed-effects) logistic regression analysis.

    • ↵a Adjusted for sex, number of general practitioner consultations, previous hospital admission, and morbidities. For complete table, see Supplemental Table 5, http://www.annfammed.org/content/15/6/515/suppl/DC1.

    • View popup
    Table 3

    Cross-Tabulation of a Patient’s Appointed General Practitioner Index Score and Number of General Practitioner Consultations in the Nested Case-Control Analysis (N = 2,892)

    General Practitioner Index ScoreGeneral Practitioner Consultations, No. (%)Total
    2–78–1213–19≥20
    Q1 (0.01 to <0.18)77 (12.1)157 (24.7)167 (26.3)234 (36.9)635 (100.0)
    Q2 (0.18 to <0.40)188 (28.1)174 (26.0)150 (22.4)157 (24.5)669 (100.0)
    Q3 (0.40 to <0.71)175 (27.1)153 (23.7)159 (24.7)158 (24.5)645 (100.0)
    Q4 (>0.71 to <1)96 (14.6)170 (25.8)168 (25.5)225 (34.1)659 (100.0)
    1151 (53.7)61 (21.5)51 (18.0)21 (7.4)284 (100.0)
    Total687 (23.8)715 (24.7)695 (24.0)795 (27.5)2,892 (100.0)
    • Q=quartile.

    • View popup
    Table 4

    Association Between Appointed General Practitioner Index Score and Odds of Emergency Hospital Admission in the Nested Case-Control Analysis (N = 2,892)

    General Practitioner Index ScoreCase Patients, No.Control Patients, No.UnadjustedAdjusteda
    Odds Ratio95% CIP ValueOdds Ratio95% CIP Value
    Q1 (0.01 to <0.18)2324033.5912.393–5.387<.0012.3181.481–3.627<.001
    Q2 (0.18 to <0.40)1774922.0961.391–3.157<.0011.6141.033–2.522.04
    Q3 (0.40 to <0.71)1604851.9321.288–2.898.0011.4960.963–2.325.07
    Q4 (0.71 to <1)1515081.5851.066–2.359.021.0310.666–1.596.89
    1 (ref)492351.000––1.000––
    • Q=quartile; ref=reference category.

    • Note: Estimated odds ratios from a conditional (fixed-effects) logistic regression analysis.

    • ↵a Adjusted for sex, number of general practitioner consultations, previous hospital admission, and morbidities. For complete table, see Supplemental Table 7, http://www.annfammed.org/content/15/6/515/suppl/DC1.

Additional Files

  • Figures
  • Tables
  • Supplemental Appendixes

    Supplemental Tables 1-7, Supplemental Figures 1-4, and Supplemental Textbook

    Files in this Data Supplement:

    • Supplemental data: Tables & Figures - PDF file
  • The Article in Brief

    Continuity of Primary Care and Emergency Hospital Admissions Among Older Patients in England

    Peter Tammes , and colleagues

    Background This study from the UK explores whether better continuity of care (seeing the same clinician over time) in older patients is associated with a lower risk of emergency hospital admission.

    What This Study Found Older patients who experience more discontinuity of care in general practice are at higher risk of emergency hospital admissions. In a study of 10,000 randomly selected patients over age 65, medical records were linked with hospital episode statistics. The study used two research approaches: a prospective cohort approach, to assess the general impact of continuity of care on emergency admission, and a nested case-control approach, to test if seeing a different GP from usual increases the risk of emergency admission during the following 30 days. The prospective approach found a graded non-significant inverse relationship between continuity of care and risk of emergency hospitalization, though patients experiencing least continuity had a risk more than twice as high than those who had complete continuity. The retrospective approach found a graded inverse relationship between continuity of care and emergency hospitalization.

    Implications

    • Initiatives to enhance continuity of care, the authors suggest, could potentially reduce hospital admissions.
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The Annals of Family Medicine: 15 (6)
The Annals of Family Medicine: 15 (6)
Vol. 15, Issue 6
November/December 2017
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Continuity of Primary Care and Emergency Hospital Admissions Among Older Patients in England
Peter Tammes, Sarah Purdy, Chris Salisbury, Fiona MacKichan, Daniel Lasserson, Richard W. Morris
The Annals of Family Medicine Nov 2017, 15 (6) 515-522; DOI: 10.1370/afm.2136

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Continuity of Primary Care and Emergency Hospital Admissions Among Older Patients in England
Peter Tammes, Sarah Purdy, Chris Salisbury, Fiona MacKichan, Daniel Lasserson, Richard W. Morris
The Annals of Family Medicine Nov 2017, 15 (6) 515-522; DOI: 10.1370/afm.2136
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  • Quality improvements of safety-netting guidelines for cancer in UK primary care: insights from a qualitative interview study of GPs
  • The impact of a named GP scheme on continuity of care and emergency hospital admission: a cohort study among older patients in England, 2012-2016
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