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Research ArticleOriginal Research

Estimating the Residency Expansion Required to Avoid Projected Primary Care Physician Shortages by 2035

Stephen M. Petterson, Winston R. Liaw, Carol Tran and Andrew W. Bazemore
The Annals of Family Medicine March 2015, 13 (2) 107-114; DOI: https://doi.org/10.1370/afm.1760
Stephen M. Petterson
1Robert Graham Center, Washington, DC
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Winston R. Liaw
2Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, Virginia
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  • For correspondence: winstonrliaw@gmail.com
Carol Tran
3University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia
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Andrew W. Bazemore
1Robert Graham Center, Washington, DC
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  • Author response: The importance of exposure
    Winston R Liaw
    Published on: 19 March 2015
  • Making Primary Care a Career of Choice
    Vineet M Arora
    Published on: 17 March 2015
  • Published on: (19 March 2015)
    Page navigation anchor for Author response: The importance of exposure
    Author response: The importance of exposure
    • Winston R Liaw, Assistant Professor

    Thanks for your comment. I agree that exposure to primary care is supremely important. Currently, exposure to primary care in general (and family medicine in particular) varies widely. Whether it's an underserved track or a rural elective, we know that these exposures, in general, can influence career trajectories. Innovations such as teaching health centers are attempting to expand training to ambulatory settings, but as...

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    Thanks for your comment. I agree that exposure to primary care is supremely important. Currently, exposure to primary care in general (and family medicine in particular) varies widely. Whether it's an underserved track or a rural elective, we know that these exposures, in general, can influence career trajectories. Innovations such as teaching health centers are attempting to expand training to ambulatory settings, but as you point out, more change is needed.

    Competing interests: None declared

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    Competing Interests: None declared.
  • Published on: (17 March 2015)
    Page navigation anchor for Making Primary Care a Career of Choice
    Making Primary Care a Career of Choice
    • Vineet M Arora, Associate Professor
    • Other Contributors:
    We would like to commend Petterson and colleagues for their thoughtful analyses of projected shortages of primary care physicians. The strengths of the analyses include taking into account newer models of primary care delivery, the growth of the hospitalist movement, and the projected increase in primary care visits due to the newly insured from the Affordable Care Act. It is not surprising that such a shortage of primary care ph...
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    We would like to commend Petterson and colleagues for their thoughtful analyses of projected shortages of primary care physicians. The strengths of the analyses include taking into account newer models of primary care delivery, the growth of the hospitalist movement, and the projected increase in primary care visits due to the newly insured from the Affordable Care Act. It is not surprising that such a shortage of primary care physicians is projected. For decades, primary care has been undervalued and has lacked the appeal of other competitive specialties among our nation's medical students. We could not agree more with the authors that the number of residency slots needs to be increased given the recent increases in medical school class sizes and sheer numbers of schools. However, it is important to understand the multifactorial reasons why current medical students do not choose primary care even when ample slots are available for them. While salary disparities between primary care and specialists are an oft cited factor, recent studies also point to an even greater importance of time off and a controllable work schedule. In addition, medical schools currently may not do enough to expose students to primary care physicians who have successfully developed clinical practices that allow them to thrive intellectually, financially, and personally. Without these model physicians, it is unlikely that students will pursue primary care long-term. Simply expanding primary care residency programs without addressing these factors will not address the primary care physician shortage. Primary care has to become a highly desirable field and not a career path of last resort. In considering the best way to care for future Americans, we should ensure that future primary care workforce is not only healthy in number, but also in job satisfaction.

    Competing interests: None declared

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    Competing Interests: None declared.
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The Annals of Family Medicine: 13 (2)
The Annals of Family Medicine: 13 (2)
Vol. 13, Issue 2
March/April 2015
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Estimating the Residency Expansion Required to Avoid Projected Primary Care Physician Shortages by 2035
Stephen M. Petterson, Winston R. Liaw, Carol Tran, Andrew W. Bazemore
The Annals of Family Medicine Mar 2015, 13 (2) 107-114; DOI: 10.1370/afm.1760

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Estimating the Residency Expansion Required to Avoid Projected Primary Care Physician Shortages by 2035
Stephen M. Petterson, Winston R. Liaw, Carol Tran, Andrew W. Bazemore
The Annals of Family Medicine Mar 2015, 13 (2) 107-114; DOI: 10.1370/afm.1760
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