Estimating the Residency Expansion Required to Avoid Projected Primary Care Physician Shortages by 2035

Article in Brief

Estimating the Residency Expansion Required to Avoid Projected Primary Care Physician Shortages by 2035

Winston R. Liaw , and colleagues

Background As the US population ages, grows, and has more health insurance, there are concerns about whether there is a large enough health care workforce to meet demand. This study examines the projected primary care physician shortage through 2035.

What This Study Found More than 44,000 additional primary care physicians will be needed by 2035 to meet the demands of the US population, assuming current ratios of primary care physicians to population and current physician retirement rates. To eliminate projected shortages, a 21 percent increase in primary care residency production will be needed. From 2015 to 2035, at current production rates, there will be 169,029 new primary care physicians in the US. Because of retiring primary care physicians, however, this production cannot match need, resulting in a shortage of 33,283 primary care physicians by 2035.

Implications

• This deficit could be eliminated by adding nearly 2,200 first-year residency positions by 2020, a 27 percent increase.
• If clinicians begin seeing fewer patients, in keeping with new health care delivery models, the projected shortage would substantially increase.